Florida 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Florida Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's Senate election between Democrat Alexander Vindman and Republican Ashley Moody. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Florida Senate election features Democrat Alexander Vindman and Republican Ashley Moody. Incumbent senator Ashley Moody is seeking reelection to a first term, having served in the US Senate since 2025. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida by 13.1%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Florida
- Democratic candidate
- Alexander Vindman
- Republican candidate
- Ashley Moody
- Incumbent / open seat
- Ashley Moody
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 46.8% D / 53.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +6.5
- Forecast odds
- 14.7% D / 85.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 42.3% D / 47.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +4.8
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 10
- Latest poll
- Change Research (D) — June 14, 2026