Florida 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Florida Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida Senate forecast currently gives Republican Ashley Moody a 87.1% chance of defeating Democrat Angie Nixon. Pollsmax projects Moody to receive 53.5% of the vote compared with 46.6% for Nixon, a projected Republican margin of 6.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida Senate election features Democrat Angie Nixon and Republican Ashley Moody. Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody is seeking to serve out the remainder of Marco Rubio's Senate term, having served in the US Senate since 2025. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida by 13.1%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Nixon can make Florida competitive again for Democrats or whether Moody can hold the state's increasingly Republican federal coalition. Florida remains one of the largest and most expensive contests on the 2026 US Senate map.