Minnesota 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Minnesota Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Minnesota Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Peggy Flanagan a 85.5% chance of defeating Republican Michele Tafoya. Pollsmax projects Flanagan to receive 53.5% of the vote compared with 46.5% for Tafoya, a projected Democratic margin of 7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Minnesota Senate election features Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Minnesota by 4.2%, and Democrats are favored to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Flanagan can keep Minnesota's long-running Democratic Senate streak alive or whether Tafoya can make the state more competitive for Republicans. Minnesota's Senate forecast and Senate polls matter because an open seat gives Republicans a clearer opening than they would have against an incumbent.