Peggy Flanagan
DEMOCRATIC
Lieutenant Governor (D-MN)
2019 – Present
Minnesota 2026 SENATE FORECAST
Michele Tafoya
REPUBLICAN
Reporter
2026 Minnesota Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Minnesota's Senate election between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Minnesota Senate election features Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Minnesota by 4.2%, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Minnesota's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Minnesota
- Democratic candidate
- Peggy Flanagan
- Republican candidate
- Michele Tafoya
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 53.6% D / 46.5% R
- Projected margin
- D +7.1
- Forecast odds
- 82.0% D / 18.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 48.0% D / 44.5% R
- Polling average margin
- D +3.5
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 3
- Latest poll
- Impact Research (D) — May 28, 2026