Minnesota 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Minnesota Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Minnesota Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Peggy Flanagan a 79.5% chance of defeating Republican Michele Tafoya. Pollsmax projects Flanagan to receive 52.7% of the vote compared with 47.4% for Tafoya, a projected Democratic margin of 5.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Minnesota Senate election features Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Minnesota by 4.2%, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Minnesota's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race.