Montana 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Montana Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Montana Senate forecast currently gives Republican Kurt Alme a 95.4% chance of defeating independent Seth Bodnar. Pollsmax projects Alme to receive 55.8% of the vote compared with 44.3% for Bodnar, a projected Republican margin of 11.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Montana Senate election features independent Seth Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Montana by 19.9%, and Republicans are favored to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Bodnar can build an independent coalition in a heavily Republican state or whether Alme can keep Montana in the GOP column. Montana remains important because even a narrow Republican hold would matter for the broader fight over control of the US Senate.