Montana 2026 SENATE FORECAST

Kurt Alme

REPUBLICAN

US Attorney, District of Montana (R)

2025 – 2026

2026 Montana Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Montana's Senate election between independent Seth Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Montana Senate election features independent Seth Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Montana by 19.9%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Montana has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.

Year: 2026
Race: Senate
State: Montana
Democratic candidate: Seth Bodnar
Republican candidate: Kurt Alme
Incumbent / open seat: Open Seat
Forecast rating: Likely R
Projected vote: 45.5% I / 54.5% R
Projected margin: R +9.0
Forecast odds: 16.9% I / 83.1% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on June 29, 2026
Polling average: 48.0% I / 52.0% R
Polling average margin: R +4.0
Polling last updated: 12:00 AM on June 29, 2026
Polls included: 1
Latest poll: Tavern Research (D) — May 18, 2026