Montana 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Montana Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Montana Senate forecast currently gives Republican Kurt Alme a 97.2% chance of defeating independent Seth Bodnar. Pollsmax projects Alme to receive 57.4% of the vote compared with 42.7% for Bodnar, a projected Republican margin of 14.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Montana Senate election features independent Seth Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Montana by 19.9%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Montana has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.