DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-AK)
2022 – 2025
Alaska 2026 SENATE FORECAST
Republican
REPUBLICAN
US Senate (R-AK)
2015 – Present
2026 Alaska Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Alaska's Senate election between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Alaska
- Democratic candidate
- Mary Peltola
- Republican candidate
- Dan Sullivan
- Incumbent / open seat
- Dan Sullivan
- Forecast rating
- Lean R
- Projected vote
- 48.4% D / 51.7% R
- Projected margin
- R +3.3
- Forecast odds
- 28.4% D / 71.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on June 23, 2026
- Polling average
- 46.5% D / 46.1% R
- Polling average margin
- D +0.4
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on June 23, 2026
- Polls included
- 10
- Latest poll
- Alaska Survey Research — June 7, 2026