Maine 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Maine Governor Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Maine Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Hannah Pingree a 93.3% chance of defeating Republican Robert Charles. Pollsmax projects Pingree to receive 55.9% of the vote compared with 44.2% for Charles, a projected Democratic margin of 11.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Maine governor election features Democrat Hannah Pingree and Republican Robert Charles. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maine by 6.8%, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. Maine has leaned Democratic in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can still draw national attention when control of the governorship is at stake.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Maine
- Democratic candidate
- Hannah Pingree
- Republican candidate
- Robert Charles
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 55.9% D / 44.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +11.7
- Forecast odds
- 93.3% D / 6.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- 48.6% D / 36.5% R
- Polling average margin
- D +12.1
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 21, 2026
- Polls included
- 6
- Latest poll
- University of New Hampshire — September 21, 2026