2026 MIDTERMS
Senate Forecast
Countdown to the Midterms
November 3, 2026
The 2026 Senate elections will determine control of the upper chamber of Congress during the second half of President Donald Trump’s term. Going into the midterms, Republicans are defending the 53-seat majority they secured in 2024, when Democrats won just 47 seats. In order to flip the Senate blue, Democrats are looking to preserve vulnerable seats while finding pickup opportunities in Republican-held states. Since winning a majority requires 51 seats for the party out of the White House, Democrats need to flip four GOP seats without losing any of their own. Due to the Republicans’ significant starting advantage, they are favored to retain control of the Senate after November.
2026 Senate Forecast:
National forecast for control of the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. This page updates with 100,000 full-chamber simulations daily to generate projected seat totals and odds for winning Senate control. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- Current Senate
- 47 D / 53 R
- Current majority
- Republican
- Seats on ballot
- 35
- Forecast control odds
- 35.4% D / 64.6% R
- Projected senate
- 49.9 D / 50.1 R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on October 17, 2026
Senate Map
Countdown to the Midterms
November 3, 2026
35 seats up for election
Republicans51 seats to win
Senate Race Ratings
All 35 Senate elections sorted by forecast ratings, based on statewide and national polling data, race ratings, previous election results, and other factors. Names indicate the incumbent if they are seeking reelection. Text colors indicate the party currently in control of the seat.
Senate Seat Distribution
Distribution of Senate seats from 100,000 daily simulations based on statewide and national polling data, race ratings, previous election results, and other factors. Projected seats may differ from the map projection, as the map shows wins as absolute. If one party is narrowly winning many seats while the other party is firmly winning theirs, the party narrowly winning many seats may win more according to the map versus the simulated distribution.
Projected Seats
Estimated Senate seats for each party based on 100,000 daily simulations.
Odds of Winning
Estimated odds of winning Senate control for each party based on 100,000 daily simulations.